IMD warns of heavy rain in Kerala; orange alerts issued as monsoon likely by June 4

Orange alert for three northern Kerala districts—Malappuram, Kozhikode and Wayanad—for Tuesday, and yellow alert for remaining 11 districts

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday (June 2, 2026)

forecast very heavy rainfall in Kerala over the coming days, placing several districts under ‘orange alert’ between June 2 and 5. It also said the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala by June 4.

The IMD issued an ‘orange alert’ for three northern Kerala districts — Malpuram, Kozhikode and Wayanad — for Tuesday, and a ‘yellow alert’ for the remaining 11 districts.

It also forecast thunderstorms accompanied by moderate snowfall and gusty winds in parts of almost all districts, except Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam, for the day.

Between June 2 and 6, the IMD has predicted widespread rainfall across the State, accompanied by lightning and strong winds with speeds ranging from 40 kmph to 50 kmph.

The IMD also issued ‘orange alert’ for four districts on Wednesday, eight districts on Thursday and seven districts on Friday, while the remaining districts were placed under ‘yellow alert’ on those days.

An ‘orange alert’ indicates very heavy rainfall between 11 cm and 20 cm, while a ‘yellow alert’ indicates heavy rainfall between 6 cm and 11 cm.

The southwest monsoon is expected to commence over Kerala around June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

Typically, monsoon arrives in Kerala around June 1, which marks the beginning of the southwestern monsoon season (June-September).

“Conditions are favorable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu around June 4,” the IMD said in its daily forecast.

It added that the monsoon will also advance in some more parts of southwestern, westcentral, eastcentral and northeast Bay of Bengal, and the remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal around this date.

The IMD had previously said the monsoon onset over Kerala would take place on May 26. However, it got delayed and the department, on May 29, stated that the onset could happen in the following week.

Last week, the department in its revised forecast for the rainfall during the season said it would be below normal.

The IMD stated that India is expected to see 90 percent of the long term average (LPA) this year.

LPA refers to the precipitation recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or a season, averaged over a long period of time, typically 30 to 50 years.

The LPA of seasonal precipitation over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm.

If the monsoon season sees less than 90 per cent of LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as “deficient”.

One reason for the below-normal precipitation could be the emergence of El-Nino conditions, which lead to less rain during monsoon in the country.

Currently, neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region.This update comes after the IMD, in a statement on May 29, acknowledged that the rain was unlikely to reach Kerala within the four-day window of its predicted date of May 26. The ‘normal’ date for the monsoon’s advent over the State was initially set for June 1.Currently, neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region.

The IMD said El-Nino conditions are likely to be weakened in June, and moderate to strong in September.

Last year, the monsoon set in over Kerala on May 24 — its earliest arrival since 2009. Although the date of arrival does not correlate with the quantum of rainfall, the latter is a cause of concern this year with the IMD and other weather agencies having warned of ‘below normal’ rainfall.

Conditions are favorable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest & southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala & Tamil Nadu, some more parts of southwestern, westcentral, eastcentral & northeast Bay of Bengal, and remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal during next 2-3 days,” the agency said in its daily bulletin on Monday (June 1, 2026).

Pre-monsoon showers drench Mumbai, waterlogging slows traffic in some areas.

IMD‘s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 21 years (2005-2025) were proven to be correct except in 2015, the agency had said in a fact sheet. ‘Correct’ here means the monsoon arriving in a window of four days of the forecast date.

This year, the agency has also lowered its forecast for the southwest monsoon to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from the 92% it had predicted in April.

If a monsoon season sees less than 90% of the LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as “deficient”.

One reason behind the below-normal rainfall this year could be the emergence of El Nino conditions, which lead to less rainfall during monsoon in India, the IMD said.

Currently, neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning toward El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region, it said. El Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September, it added.

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